Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.007397 0.008334 0.009358 0.010563 0.011947 0.013489 0.015343
2024-10-27 0.005754 0.006982 0.008443 0.010319 0.012677 0.015565 0.019396
2024-11-03 0.004960 0.006320 0.008030 0.010357 0.013474 0.017546 0.023344
2024-11-10 0.004548 0.006034 0.007988 0.010783 0.014730 0.020187 0.028450
2024-11-17 0.004037 0.005532 0.007576 0.010617 0.015107 0.021616 0.032001
2024-11-24 0.003688 0.005205 0.007347 0.010654 0.015738 0.023439 0.036341
2024-12-01 0.003331 0.004820 0.006986 0.010437 0.015936 0.024594 0.039751
2024-12-08 0.003140 0.004656 0.006924 0.010656 0.016815 0.026900 0.045355
2024-12-15 0.002919 0.004423 0.006733 0.010640 0.017298 0.028592 0.050122
2024-12-22 0.002630 0.004058 0.006298 0.010177 0.016970 0.028844 0.052291
2024-12-29 0.002458 0.003865 0.006119 0.010120 0.017326 0.030330 0.056974
2025-01-05 0.002411 0.003868 0.006259 0.010620 0.018723 0.033867 0.066217
2025-01-12 0.002200 0.003587 0.005908 0.010235 0.018482 0.034348 0.069435
2025-01-19 0.002031 0.003367 0.005645 0.009987 0.018479 0.035308 0.073871
2025-01-26 0.001925 0.003246 0.005544 0.010026 0.019031 0.037445 0.081270
2025-02-02 0.001883 0.003234 0.005634 0.010436 0.020372 0.041401 0.093595
2025-02-09 0.001766 0.003075 0.005444 0.010276 0.020515 0.042790 0.099992
2025-02-16 0.001684 0.002976 0.005356 0.010311 0.021073 0.045171 0.109324
2025-02-23 0.001579 0.002827 0.005159 0.010102 0.021069 0.046254 0.115450
2025-03-02 0.001532 0.002784 0.005164 0.010313 0.022027 0.049737 0.128775
2025-03-09 0.001463 0.002692 0.005067 0.010298 0.022463 0.052008 0.139161
2025-03-16 0.001354 0.002515 0.004783 0.009852 0.021836 0.051533 0.141420
2025-03-23 0.001292 0.002429 0.004681 0.009797 0.022143 0.053502 0.151486